Madeleine McCann would be turning 19-years-old this week, but instead of enjoying a birthday surrounded by friends and loved ones as an adult, she remains the subject of a missing persons case that has now turned 15-years-old. The disappearance of the British girl rocked headlines in 2007 when she seemed to vanish into thin air while with her parents on holiday in Portugal. Today, the public stays just as captivated as they were the better half of two decades ago. With so much time passed, and so many dead ends in the search for her, will there ever be closure in Maddie’s disappearance?

Even though Madeleine McCann disappeared 15 years ago, her case has remained open and the investigation has never officially ended. In fact, several millions in taxpayer money has gone to the search for Madeleine — something that has long-been a point of controversy. Over the course of the past 15 years, investigators in the UK have interviewed countless people with no success, taking perhaps the longest time in history to prove Portuguese detectives wrong regarding the initial findings in the case and the initial suspicion against Maddie’s parents. Meanwhile, Madeleine remains completely lost to the world.

Is Madeleine McCann alive?

If Madeleine is alive, she’d be turning 19-years-old this weekend. She’d be a young adult woman. Since she went missing when she was only three-years-old, it’s statistically likely that she’d have no memory of her life prior to what it is currently. In fact, she’d have no memory of her own birthday and would likely have no idea that her 19th birthday is on Saturday. She could either be held captive completely against her will right now in a situation akin to the Ariel Castro case — or she could be living freely anywhere in the world under a totally different identity, totally unaware that she’s, in fact, Madeleine McCann. Is any of this scenario possible? Absolutely. Is any of this scenario probable? Not really.

The Madeleine McCann disappearance has been so widely publicized over the past 15 years, that it would be close to impossible for someone to not have any kind of knowledge over it. Furthermore, Madeleine had the very identifying feature of coloboma in her right eye. This identifying feature has been broadcast in the search for her. It’s been addressed in the news and in interviews with the family and it has been put front-and-center of every single photo that has ever circulated of this child.

Aside from Madeleine’s identifying features, which would certainly stick out and make it easy to identify her even at 19-years-old, the evidence in the case simply doesn’t support the theory that she’s alive. In fact, the evidence in this case doesn’t even support the idea that Madeleine McCann ever left her family’s rental apartment alive. You can read about all of the official evidence of this case here.

Will we ever know what happened to Madeleine McCann?

Fifteen years have passed since Madeleine was first reported missing by her parents in Portugal. Fifteen years have passed since critical evidence was collected and important interviews were conducted in the most important hours of the case. If Madeleine was abducted and killed by anybody in Portugal — whether they be locals or from elsewhere like the McCanns — there has been ample time for any real evidence to be gone. If Madeleine was taken anywhere out of the country over the course of this 15 years, and then killed, then her remains can be anywhere on this gigantic, vast planet. The odds of finding out exactly what happened to Madeleine, or where she ended up, are incredibly low. However, the odds aren’t nonexistent. For lack of a better term: Miracles do sometimes happen. Here’s to hoping that someday we know what really happened to Madeleine McCann.

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